Chapter 1: Understanding the Delta Variant Spread

Recent reports indicate an increase in COVID-19 cases driven by the Delta variant in countries with high vaccination rates, particularly Israel and the UK. However, these nations are experiencing fewer fatalities and milder governmental responses compared to regions with slower vaccination rollouts.

A health worker prepares a dose of the Pfizer vaccine in Glasgow, Scotland, on December 8, 2020. Photo: Jeff J Mitchell/Pool via AP

By Marianne Guenot

In light of the recent surge in COVID-19 cases attributed to the Delta variant, Israel has adopted a different approach compared to previous waves. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett stated, “Masks instead of restrictions, vaccines instead of lockdowns.” Earlier, the country implemented strict measures that successfully reduced case numbers by early June, paving the way for one of the most effective vaccination campaigns globally.

Currently, despite the rise in cases, both deaths and hospitalizations have not escalated proportionately, likely due to the protective effects of vaccines.

Bennett visiting a health center in Tel Aviv on June 29. Photo: AMIR COHEN/POOL/AFP; Getty Images

Section 1.1: The Nature of the Delta Variant

According to the World Health Organization, the Delta variant poses a significant threat, being 60% more transmissible than its Alpha counterpart. It can also overcome the defenses provided by a single dose of AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccines, which are only about 30% effective against symptomatic Delta infections. However, individuals who contract the virus after their first vaccine dose tend to experience milder symptoms: AstraZeneca offers 71% protection against hospitalization, while Pfizer provides 94%, based on UK data. Full vaccination with two doses enhances protection even further.

Subsection 1.1.1: Data from the UK and Israel

Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases for Russia, Israel, and the UK as of June 28. Photo: Our World in Data

In the UK, the Delta variant has been a major contributor to rising COVID-19 case numbers, with the seven-day rolling average of new daily cases hitting 16,404, a fivefold increase from the previous month. However, the rise in hospitalizations and deaths has not mirrored this trend, according to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who noted a slight uptick in both but overall low figures. On June 28, the average number of new confirmed deaths was 17, doubling from the month prior despite the significant rise in infections.

Vaccination rates are likely influencing these outcomes. As of June 27, 48% of the UK population was fully vaccinated, with 65% having received at least one dose (Our World in Data). A similar pattern is observed in Israel, where daily new cases were around 283 on June 28, a rise from approximately 15 in early June. Nevertheless, COVID-19 deaths have remained low, fluctuating between one and zero over the past fortnight. Bennett confirmed, “Currently, there is no increase in hospitalizations.”

In stark contrast, Russia, with only 11% of its population fully vaccinated, has experienced a sharp increase in COVID-19-related deaths, averaging 575 new daily deaths as of June 28, up from about 370 the previous month.

Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Russia, Israel and the UK as of June 28. Photo: Our World in Data

Section 1.2: Policy Responses and Future Outlook

Despite the rise in COVID-19 cases, the UK is still poised to lift its remaining lockdown measures by July 19, as announced by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Israel has reinstated indoor mask mandates but is not considering more restrictive measures like lockdowns. “Our strategy is to provide maximum protection for Israeli citizens with minimal disruption to daily life,” Bennett asserted.

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Chapter 2: The Global Response to Delta Variant

The video titled "How Covid's Delta Variant Quickly Spread Globally | WSJ" explains the rapid transmission of the Delta variant and its implications for public health and vaccination strategies.